Agriculture in the new century

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It is no secret that turbulent times lay ahead for the agriculture industry. Globally, the population is growing at an exponential rate, especially in third world countries. This is obviously being accompanied by huge increases in demand which are not being met in the supply side of the food equation. How will we solve this problem in the this century and beyond? Well, most researchers agree that something has to be done. Currently, teams all over the globe are assembling and addressing this very topic of food insecurity. The solution is being approached from all different angles, from genetically engineered plants, to improved infrastructure, to diversification of irrigation styles all aimed at the goal of higher crop yields. However, through this class and examining primary and secondary sources on the topic, it is quite apparent that all the energy is going to trying to solve the problems in mainly one of these ways. This is unfortunately, neglecting to realize another key aspect in the equation; mother nature. Global warming is a topic that is sometimes lost in the midst because so much focus is solving the problem with developing technologies to solves today's crop riddles. The problem is, with rising temperatures almost certain in coming decades, agriculture will be hit hard. Much research is going into this, its just that no clear cut solutions have been presented. Two sources addressed such a topic. The first was the article " Global Warming changes the forecast for Agriculture" from the book The Unfinished Agenda, written by ( ). The second was the article "Agriculture & Global Climate Change" from the website http//www.pewclimate.org/projects/env_agriculture.cfm . Both examined how this issue is being delt with and what lies in the future for the industry and the global community as a whole.

The first article delt with the issue in some what of a positive light. It was reporting on the discussions held by ninety-nine countries at a seminar held in Shanghai in January, 001. The topic at hand was global warming and its impact on international agriculture. The first item that was established was that global warming was indeed occurring around the globe and wasn't simple a myth. The representatives concluded that a 1.4-5.8 increase in degrees celcius was expected in the coming century. Accompnaing this would be rising sea levels, flooding, droughts and violent storms which would all effect the global food market. According to the researchers, global warming could now be classified as a trend because of the fact that the 0's were the warmest decade temperature wise in the northern hemisphere in the past 1000 years. It is also apparent that farmers have indeed adapted to these rising temperatures with various methods. This is because of the fact that crop yields are actually increasing globally. (Per Capita is an entirely different issue) Examples of the improvements that lead to larger crop yields are increased irrigation, diversification of plants, rotating planting and harvesting dates and globalization of markets. However, while farmers in industrialized countires have adapted with this new technology, third world countries lack the funds to keep up. For this reason, they are actually falling farther behind t he rest of the globe year after year.

With all these negative aspects of global warming present, this article does do a nice job of noticing some changes on the positive side from temperature increases. Firs,t global warmer could yield more timber and lead to increased water supplies in some areas where water is scarce. It also could lead to some larger crop yields because of these reasons and increased irrigation in some sub tropical areas of the world.

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The reason for the increased water, timber and crop yields is because of an environmental phenomenom known as the "carbon dioxide fertilizer effect" composed by Richard Adams. He is a professor of agriculture and resource economics at Oregon State. The theory is basically as follows as quoted by Mr. Adams "as the amount of co in the at rises, some plants will grow faster and produce more yield." He goes on to add that these studies overestimate the fertilizer effect a bit because of the fact that all other variables have to remain constant for the experiemtnt to yield usable results. While this bit of light shed on a dark subject is nice, its flame can only be lit for so long.

The article then talks of the harmful effects of global warming. It states that pests, pathogens will probably increase. Accompniaing this will be soil degradation caused by increased rainfall patters and rising ozone levels. Animal species, especially those residing in or near lakes and rivers will be greatly affected with water levels rising and increased rainfall. Because of the ever more possible case that crop yields will decline in most regions because of temperature increases, there will be less feed available for livestock and their numbers will most likely decrease.

Ending with a bit of an ironic twist, the article points out this issue is one of a double-edged sword. That is because agriculture itself produces almost 0% of the greenhouse gases that lead to the depletion of the ozone layer. It is a bit ironic that the situation we are trying to fix is actually causing its own problems. Improvements have to be made to technology to make infrastructure more environmentally friendly. Limiting deforestation and agroforestry will also lead to improved less harsh results. Farmers have adapted so far, they just need to stay ahead of the curveball that mother nature throws at them.

The second article has more of a sadistic tone to it. They give a bit of hope at the conclusion of the article, but the far majority of the piece deals with the negative aspects associated with a aglobal climate change. It states that the impact of global warming will effect the world three ways. First, with rising water levels, second by effecting plant life, and third effecting human and animal health.

Rising water levels is one of the most obvious repercussions of global warming. The increase in temperatures will cause glaciers to melt and seas to rise. It might rise as much as a full foot in the next fifty years causing coastlines to deplete and people migrating to the central regions of their countires. The increase in sea levels could cause drastic changes to the precipitation patterns. These actually lead to more droughts and more flooding. This is because higher temperatures equals increased evaporation which causes the clouds to produce more rain, which in a vicous cycle creates increased water levels and flooding.

This leads to the effect that global warming has on plant life globally. The article points out that certain plants might not grow in areas where temperature increases are as little as a few degrees. The decrease in water supply means that farmers have to drastically improve and alter their current irrigation systems and crop varieties in order to be able to compete in the global agricultural market. It states that crop yields could decfrrease as much as 5% in the next century which would impact every single person alive on the planet.

The third area this piece explores is the impact that global warming has on human and animal health. With increases in temperature, disease carrying mosquitos and other insects could travel farther north than they ever could creating all sorts of problems. The summer death toll in some areas could triple.

human and animal health

- mere three to four degree temperature rise during the already hot summer months, the summer death toll will nearly triple

- many serious diseases only appear in warmer weather. Disease carrying insects, namely mosquitoes, will be able to travel farther north already seen with west nile

- As far as humans will be effected economically, with the absence of certain crops or inability to grow them, everyone will be affected whether it is through rising prices due to scarcity or monetary loss to people involved in the agriculture business (1)

- The rising temperatures will also inflate the temperature of bodies of water. Fish and other aquatic life may not be able survive in the warmer environment. The chemical content of the oceans could be altered by the loss of oxygen in the water, which in turn increases the salinity. As noted earlier, the loss of wetlands means the loss of food and habitat for many animals. The life cycles and migration patterns in animals, such as birds, will also be altered (EPA, 000).

It is a proven fact that the Earth's temperatures naturally slowly fluctuate and they will continue to do so without the help of humans.

1. Adams, Richard M. "Agriculture & Global Climate Change." February 10, 1. www.pewclimate.org/projects/env_agriculture.cfm

. Carlise, John. "Global Warming Enjoy it while you can." April, 18.

www.nationalcenter.org/NPA14.html

4. Epstein, Paul R. "Is global warming harmful to health?" 18. www.sciam.com/000/0800issue/0800epstein.html

5. Newmann, James E. "Sea-level Rise & Global Warming." February , 000. www.pewclimate.org/projects/env_sealevel.cfm Word Count 106

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